Panzar Forging Guide!




Introduction

There have been many complaints on the forums about forging being difficult, forging being at 15% success not 50% success rate, and other silly things.

I am laying all these false accusations to rest with REAL MATH!

I am going to prove to you that Panzar actually in fact has one of the easiest upgrading systems in any game. Most games have much lower success rates to upgrade weapons and armour without pure speccing into a class or profession. This is because you have a flat above average success rate of 70-60% for every upgrade level.


Guidelines

Only work on one piece of armour at a time! I cannot stress this enough! Do not think that swapping between different pieces of armour will up your success rates. It stays 50% every single time.

Luck does not exist in math!

You will need money and time, grab some popcorn and a movie, and start clicking.


Rules

One Fail = One Attempt

Eg. You are going for +5 and you get up to +4 then it fails, that is only 1 attempt.
You upgrade once and it fails, that is 1 attempt. It succeeds twice and then fails, that is 1 attempt. All together so far, you've completed 3 attempts out of 32 for +5 equip.

An attempt is every time it fails to reach your goal.


Important Info

The +# does not matter! The actual upgrade matters.

In this sense, a +4 equip can be better than a +7 equip if all you want is mastery upgrades, and the +7 has 6 HPs and 1 Mastery, and the +4 has 4 masteries.

You know which is which by these icons:



The sword = Mastery increase - Each sword adds mastery
The shield = HP increase - Each shield adds HP

If you wish to run a full HP character, all you want is shield. Therefore, even if you reach +8 like you wanted, if you had 7 swords, you might as well trash it!


Formula

Chance of success= (1/2) ^X = 1/the amount of attempts to get what you want

Chance of total failure after X amount of attempts = (x/y) ^y - This is the chance of failing even after doing the calculated amount of attempts and still not reaching your goal.


Forging Rates

Does anyone know exactly how the mastery or HP from upgrading is calculated? I'm sure HP is likely a percentage.

Amount of mastery that is added by enchanting depends on the amount of mastery that add the item itself. Items higher level give greater hp/mastery increase with enchanting.

Also, there are some items that unwise to enchant in some parameter. For example paladin's censers give good bonus to health but very poor to mastery. Similarly for tank's shield.

The same goes with weapons. It gives a good bonus to health or to mastery (depends on a class). For example paladin's scepters better enchant to health, but sister's of fire staffs are better suited for enchanting to mastery.

P.S. Sorry for bad english.

so according to this after 1024 atempts i have a 63,23% chance to enchant my gear from 0 to 10?
wtf?
I've been told that even after 12 fails chance of failure again is 50%. It is not like in dota that with every failure the chance of success increases.

after 1024 attempts the probability of had got at least one lvl 10 upgrade is 63,23%

Here is a video that explains the system clearly:
http://youtu.be/rwvIGNXY21Y

If you've never seen Derren Brown, this is what he's referring to: http://youtu.be/X1uJD1O3L08

@Alligator Blood

After 1024 tries there is a 50% chance your next enchant will work, just as there is on your first enchant and your millionth.

If you make 1024 attempts at getting +10 then there is a 63.23% chance that sometime during those attempts you will succeed in getting +10.

When I saw "Forge Guide" I thought you'd explain everything to do with the Forge, i.e. crafting, apply runes, creating resources, etc. That's what I'd like to learn more about. The wiki is so incomplete on many a topic. Anyway, my specific question is, what's the purpose of forging a copper bar, wooden beams and such? The crafting seems to only use raw materials. Or do the forged materials get used at higher levels?. (I'm still low level) Thanks.

The crafting system change since this guide.

Is there a new guide posted anywhere?